Gallup finds unemployment at 10.1% for September

Posted on October 7, 2010

Ouch.  This is not going to help the Democrats at the ballot box on November 2:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September — up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month — the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September — and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday.

The reason the government’s September jobless numbers reported tomorrow will more than likely be less than Gallup is because the government’s numbers are “based around mid-September” before the uptick in private sector job losses:

The government’s final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup’s modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday’s ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government’s national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup’s mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

However, Gallup’s monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.

Bearing a larger share of the unemployment burden are the 18-29 year olds and those without a college education. Underemployment was also up to 18.8% from 18.6% in late August.

Posted in: Economy, Unemployment